Analysis of Potential NHL Expansion Franchises in The US and Canada
Abstract
The National Hockey League is one of the most popular sporting leagues in North American today. However, there are many markets in the U.S and Canada that they do not have franchises in. My research is focusing on finding which markets in the U.S. and Canada would be best suited to support a new franchise. I look at population, fan bases, interest in hockey and other factors in determining which markets these new teams would be most successful. Once I have determined the best locations I recommend four new franchises and which two franchises should be moved.
Project Background
The National Hockey League currently has 30 teams in four divisions with 16 teams in the Eastern Conference and 14 teams in the Western Conference. 23 teams in the United States and seven in Canada. After the recent divisional realignment there has been discussion in potentially expanding the league due to the uneven conferences. Many cities across the U.S. and Canada have put in their bid to receive one of these expansion teams. Some of the cities that have shown interest include Seattle, Portland, Houston, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Las Vegas in the United States. In Canada, the cities bidding for teams include Hamilton, Quebec, Saskatoon and Toronto who is looking for a second franchise. I chose this project because I have never had a NHL team to cheer for being from Wisconsin and I wanted to see what chances Milwaukee would have of getting a franchise. However, I will not be biased in my analysis and make sure to take in every factor for every candidate city.
My geospatial question is: What cities in the U.S. and Canada would be the most suitable for a new professional hockey franchise? My study area will include all major cities within the United States and Canada. This project is targeted towards the National Hockey League, which they can use in their discussion on potential expansion teams. This project will be very relevant in the next two to three years when the NHL decides on these expansion teams.
My geospatial question is: What cities in the U.S. and Canada would be the most suitable for a new professional hockey franchise? My study area will include all major cities within the United States and Canada. This project is targeted towards the National Hockey League, which they can use in their discussion on potential expansion teams. This project will be very relevant in the next two to three years when the NHL decides on these expansion teams.
Methods
The new alignment that this project proposes will have four new franchises with two relocated current franchises.
The variables to be looked at to find the best potential franchise cities will be:
• Sport Map World. (n.d.). Map of NHL teams. www.sportmapworld.com/map/ice-hockey/north america/nhl.
• Sport Map World. (n.d.). Map of AHL teams. www.sportmapworld.com/map/ice-hockey/north america/ahl.
• ESPN. (2015). NHL Attendance Report. espn.go.com/nhl/attendance.
NCAA
• Rowe, D. (2013). USA Hockey Camp Potential Map. ArcGIS ESRI Story Maps.
www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=0ba52778ff064f889b6fb34df45c49de
Population Point Cloud
• Data.gov. (2014) USGS North American Atlas Populated areas
catalog.data.gov/dataset/usgs-small-scale-dataset-north-american-atlas-populated-places-200406-shapefile
Youth League Teams
• My Hockey Rankings. (n.d.) Leagues. myhockeyrankings.com/leagues.php
Minor Leagues
• Wikipedia. (n.d.) List of Ice Hockey League North America. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ice_hockey_leagues#North_America
Fan Base Information
• Silver, N. (2014). Why Can’t Canada Win the Stanley Cup? fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-cant-canada-win-the-stanley-cup/
The variables to be looked at to find the best potential franchise cities will be:
- Population
- Density of minor and junior league teams
- Density of youth league teams
- Fan base size
- Distance from current NHL teams (farther away being more favorable)
- Population
- Density of minor and junior league teams
- Density of youth league teams
- Fan base size
- Ticket sales over the last few seasons.
• Sport Map World. (n.d.). Map of NHL teams. www.sportmapworld.com/map/ice-hockey/north america/nhl.
• Sport Map World. (n.d.). Map of AHL teams. www.sportmapworld.com/map/ice-hockey/north america/ahl.
• ESPN. (2015). NHL Attendance Report. espn.go.com/nhl/attendance.
NCAA
• Rowe, D. (2013). USA Hockey Camp Potential Map. ArcGIS ESRI Story Maps.
www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=0ba52778ff064f889b6fb34df45c49de
Population Point Cloud
• Data.gov. (2014) USGS North American Atlas Populated areas
catalog.data.gov/dataset/usgs-small-scale-dataset-north-american-atlas-populated-places-200406-shapefile
Youth League Teams
• My Hockey Rankings. (n.d.) Leagues. myhockeyrankings.com/leagues.php
Minor Leagues
• Wikipedia. (n.d.) List of Ice Hockey League North America. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ice_hockey_leagues#North_America
Fan Base Information
• Silver, N. (2014). Why Can’t Canada Win the Stanley Cup? fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-cant-canada-win-the-stanley-cup/
These are the locations of Minor League Teams and Youth League Teams which I used to create Point Density rasters.
The model above show the process for creating the Potential Franchise Cities Index Model. The Current NHL Cities Index Model uses the same rasters while excluding the NHL Euclidean Distance raster.
I used the Raster Calculator tool to add up the reclassified rasters into to Index Models
The Potential Franchise Cities Index Model (above right) shows the rank that each area scored on a scale of 0-20. The Current NHL Cities Index Model (above left) shows the rank that each area scored on a scale of 0-15. Below I added the factors of fan base to the Potential Franchise Cities Index Model and fan base and ticket sales to the Current NHL Cities Index Model to give each model a scale of 0-25.
Top Cities
|
Bottom Cities
|
Top Franchises
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Bottom Franchises
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Conclusion
The most favorable potential franchise cities found were:
The least favorable current NHL franchises were:
- Toronto
- Hamilton
- Saskatoon
- Regina
- Quebec City
- Seattle
The least favorable current NHL franchises were:
- Florida Panthers
- Arizona Coyotes
- Carolina Hurricanes
- Nashville Predators
This new proposed NHL will have the same number of divisions.
Eastern Conference
Northeast Division
Central Division
Eastern Conference
Northeast Division
- New Toronto Franchise
- New Quebec Franchise
- Montreal Canadians
- Ottawa Senators
- Buffalo Sabres
- Toronto Maple Leafs
- Boston Bruins
- New York Islanders
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- New Jersey Devils
- Philadelphia Flyers
- Pittsburgh Penguins
- Washington Capitals
- Carolina Hurricanes
- Tampa Bay Lightning
- New York Rangers
Central Division
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Colorado Avalanche
- Dallas Stars
- Minnesota Wild
- Nashville Predators
- St. Louis Blues
- Winnipeg Jets
- Detroit Red Wings *
- New Seattle Franchise
- New Saskatoon Franchise
- Anaheim Ducks
- Calgary Flames
- Edmonton Oilers
- Los Angeles Kings
- San Jose Sharks
- Vancouver Canucks